The Indian vote is the elephant in the room, the political card that no one is discussing. The way the Indian community votes in GE13 could well play a deciding role in the post-election political landscape.
There are 1.9 million Indians in Malaysia, comprising 7.3 per cent of the population. They are the third largest ethnic group, after the Malays and Chinese.
The community may have supported Pakatan Rakyat in the 2008 election, but not any longer. It is Barisan Nasional (BN) that enjoys more support among Indian voters now, with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak having a huge 72 per cent approval rating among Indian voters, according to Merdeka Center.
Najib has implemented several initiatives for the community, including a micro-credit scheme for low-income Indian families. He has also attracted broad support across our multi-ethnic society for his 1Malaysia programme.
No wonder the Opposition has given up on the Indian vote. PKR expects to lose more than one-third of its Indian votes to BN in the coming polls, according to PKR strategy director Rafizi Ramli.
"This time I believe the record (of getting nearly 80 per cent of Indian votes in 2008) will be hard to defend, with several issues in MIC involving its leadership going in a direction which the Indian community feels more comfortable with," he told Berita Harian in April.
Rafizi admitted that MIC president Datuk Seri G. Palanivel had worked hard to attract Indian voters nationwide.
This is also a failure of Pakatan to hold on to Indian support. After 2008, opposition solidarity had disintegrated, with Hindraf claiming that Pakatan failed to solve any of the problems faced by Indians.
Hindraf has announced that it would only support PR in GE13 if the alliance officially endorsed Hindraf's 18-point demands for an end to institutionalised racism against Indians.
But that hasn't materialised, with Pakatan leaders thinking they could make do with only Malay and Chinese votes. The Indian community, after all, does not form a majority in any of the country's 222 parliamentary constituencies.
Even today, Pakatan believes that dwindling Indian support will be compensated by Chinese and Malay votes.
But this complacency could cost the Opposition dearly on polling day. After all, 79 per cent of Malay voters support Najib.
And while the Indian community may not form a majority in any constituency on its own, it could play a crucial kingmaker role.
That has prompted Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to reportedly consider setting up a minority affairs bureau in PKR.
With GE 13 nearing, the nervous Opposition coalition is naturally desperate to bring in Bersih co-chairperson Ambiga Sreenevasan into its fold, so it can count on her support base to attract some much-needed votes.
Ambiga has been playing hard to get, though.
Upset that her peaceful Bersih 3.0 demonstration was hijacked by Anwar and Azmin Ali, Ambiga has so far given them the cold shoulder.
She must have felt betrayed by the Opposition hooligans, who dragged her credibility through the streets in the violence that followed.
But that hasn't stopped Pakatan from begging her to join.
Speculation that she would head the proposed bureau has grown after Ambiga shared the stage with Indian opposition leaders at a cultural event in Klang last month. A banner advertising the event even carried photos of her alongside Selangor exco member Dr Xavier Jayakumar and other Pakatan MPs and assemblymen.
But Anwar's desperate gamble is likely to run into resistance within PKR itself as a party member claimed that the proposed bureau would not be welcome among Indian Opposition leaders.
The Indian leaders were afraid that their own positions would be threatened if Ambiga joined them, a PKR source told Free Malaysia Today.
Najib is therefore on track to win the Indian vote in GE 13, with his renewed commitment to the community and the opportunities his 1Malaysia programme offers all sections of the population to benefit from the nation's continued growth.
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